Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Pushing Pause on the Boeing 737 Panic.



Two Boeing 737 Max's have crashed in the last month or so, the most recent in Ethiopia where it resulted in tragic loss of life.

There's no denying that.

And that definitely needs to be looked into.

I'm not an air crash examiner by any means, and I don't really know enough to comment on this story. But then, neither do you, or any of those, outside learned air agencies perhaps.

So some things to keep in mind.

The 737 basic design goes back to 1967.  The 737 Max is simply the most updated, although certainly very updated, version of that old air frame.  People panicking over 737s should realize that just because its a 737, doesn't mean its a 737 Max.

And just because there's been two crash in close proximity in time doesn't mean there's anything actually wrong with the plane, actually.  Both airplanes that crashed were in foreign use and while the airlines that had them will no doubt maintain that their pilots are amongst the very best in the world, frankly if the pilot isn't an American pilot, they aren't.

Most nations, including nations that put in a lot of flight time, don't train anywhere near to the American standard.  American private pilots have knowledge that vastly exceeds the knowledge of many pilots that step into lesser commercial roles elsewhere, and American commercial pilots are not only second to none, there's no comparison everywhere.

Beyond that, the nature of reporting tends to dog pile on, but not evenly.  If the Russian airline Aeroflot was subject to the same standards nobody would ever get on a Russian airplane, but it isn't.  Aeroflot has had five times the number of deaths than any other airline in the world, with over 8,000 people losing their lives on their planes since they first started flying. And this in an airline that no doubt uses a lot of former military pilots who ought to know what they are doing.

Five times.

Finally, the number of manufacturers of aircraft have dwindled to an unstable few.  When commercial aviation got rolling the number of competing companies was vast.  Even at the start of the jet age that was still true.  Now, in the Western world we're down to Boeing and Airbus.

Airbus is a pan European aircraft manufacturer that competes neck and neck against Boeing, the sole American commercial aviation manufacturer.  Hurting Boeing, even accidentally, helps Airbus.  It's notable that European aviation agencies were very quick to ground Boeing.

Indeed, European bans were such that Boeing 737 Max's in the air had to re route and not land at European airports.  And that's just flat out dumb.   Safety would have required them to allow them to land at their destination, not re route.

Now, I'm not saying that European actions were calculated to hurt Boeing.  But I am cognizant that its always hard not to keep your home close to you in some fashion when problems break out.

Lawsuits and overreaction have driven the costs of private aircraft so high that only the wealthy can afford them and very few are made.  Overreaction could kill off American commercial manufacturing and certainly will hurt it.  A little prudential judgment may be in order.

No comments:

Post a Comment