Wyoming Air Mail Centennial Talk by Dave Marcum, Cheyenne 6-30-2021

The Report. Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon.

Hot off of the Government Printing Office's Press:

Preliminary Assessment:  Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon.

Okay, I've said it once, and I'll say it again. The UAP's, or UFO's if you prefer in this instance, have a more mundane original. They're ours.

Let's start with the first sentence of the very short (seven page) report:

The limited amount of high-quality reporting on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions about the nature or intent of UAP.

Uh huh.  That probably tells you about all you really need to know, right there.  It's not high quality, as the source of it, doesn't want it to be.

Well, let's take a look at the rest of the non tome.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

The limited amount of high-quality reporting on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions about the nature or intent of UAP. The Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force (UAPTF) considered a range of information on UAP described in U.S. military and IC (Intelligence Community) reporting, but because the reporting lacked sufficient specificity, ultimately recognized that a unique, tailored reporting process was required to provide sufficient data for analysis of UAP events. 

• •As a result, the UAPTF concentrated its review on reports that occurred between 2004 and 2021, the majority of which are a result of this new tailored process to better capture UAP events through formalized reporting. 
• •Most of the UAP reported probably do represent physical objects given that a majority of UAP were registered across multiple sensors, to include radar, infrared, electro-optical, weapon seekers, and visual observation. 

In a limited number of incidents, UAP reportedly appeared to exhibit unusual flight characteristics. These observations could be the result of sensor errors, spoofing, or observer misperception and require additional rigorous analysis. There are probably multiple types of UAP requiring different explanations based on the range of appearances and behaviors described in the available reporting. Our analysis of the data supports the construct that if and when individual UAP incidents are resolved they will fall into one of five potential explanatory categories: airborne clutter, natural atmospheric phenomena, USG or U.S. industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems, and a catchall “other” bin. 

UAP clearly pose a safety of flight issue and may pose a challenge to U.S. national security. Safety concerns primarily center on aviators contending with an increasingly cluttered air domain. UAP would also represent a national security challenge if they are foreign adversary collection platforms or provide evidence a potential adversary has developed either a breakthrough or disruptive technology. 

Consistent consolidation of reports from across the federal government, standardized reporting, increased collection and analysis, and a streamlined process for screening all such reports against a broad range of relevant USG data will allow for a more sophisticated analysis of UAP that is likely to deepen our understanding. Some of these steps are resource-intensive and would require additional investment.

 AVAILABLE REPORTING LARGELY INCONCLUSIVE 

Limited Data Leaves Most UAP Unexplained… Limited data and inconsistency in reporting are key challenges to evaluating UAP. No standardized reporting mechanism existed until the Navy established one in March 2019. The Air Force subsequently adopted that mechanism in November 2020, but it remains limited to USG reporting. The UAPTF regularly heard anecdotally during its research about other observations that occurred but which were never captured in formal or informal reporting by those observers. 

After carefully considering this information, the UAPTF focused on reports that involved UAP largely witnessed firsthand by military aviators and that were collected from systems we considered to be reliable. These reports describe incidents that occurred between 2004 and 2021, with the majority coming in the last two years as the new reporting mechanism became better known to the military aviation community. We were able to identify one reported UAP with high confidence. In that case, we identified the object as a large, deflating balloon. The others remain unexplained. 

• 144 reports originated from USG sources. Of these, 80 reports involved observation with multiple sensors. 
• Most reports described UAP as objects that interrupted pre-planned training or other military activity.

UAP Collection Challenges 

Sociocultural stigmas and sensor limitations remain obstacles to collecting data on UAP. Although some technical challenges—such as how to appropriately filter out radar clutter to ensure safety of flight for military and civilian aircraft—are longstanding in the aviation community, while others are unique to the UAP problem set. 

• Narratives from aviators in the operational community and analysts from the military and IC describe disparagement associated with observing UAP, reporting it, or attempting to discuss it with colleagues. Although the effects of these stigmas have lessened as senior members of the scientific, policy, military, and intelligence communities engage on the topic seriously n public, reputational risk may keep many observers silent, complicating scientific pursuit of the topic.
• The sensors mounted on U.S. military platforms are typically designed to fulfill specific missions. As a result, those sensors are not generally suited for identifying UAP. 
• Sensor vantage points and the numbers of sensors concurrently observing an object play substantial roles in distinguishing UAP from known objects and determining whether a UAP demonstrates breakthrough aerospace capabilities. Optical sensors have the benefit of providing some insight into relative size, shape, and structure. Radiofrequency sensors provide more accurate velocity and range information

But Some Potential Patterns Do Emerge 

Although there was wide variability in the reports and the dataset is currently too limited to allow for detailed trend or pattern analysis, there was some clustering of UAP observations regarding shape, size, and, particularly, propulsion. UAP sightings also tended to cluster around U.S. training and testing grounds, but we assess that this may result from a collection bias as a result of focused attention, greater numbers of latest-generation sensors operating in those areas, unit expectations, and guidance to report anomalies. 

And a Handful of UAP Appear to Demonstrate Advanced Technology 

In 18 incidents, described in 21 reports, observers reported unusual UAP movement patterns or flight characteristics. 

Some UAP appeared to remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, maneuver abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernable means of propulsion. In a small number of cases, military aircraft systems processed radio frequency (RF) energy associated with UAP sightings. 

The UAPTF holds a small amount of data that appear to show UAP demonstrating acceleration or a degree of signature management. Additional rigorous analysis are necessary by multiple teams or groups of technical experts to determine the nature and validity of these data. We are conducting further analysis to determine if breakthrough technologies were demonstrated. 

UAP PROBABLY LACK A SINGLE EXPLANATION 

The UAP documented in this limited dataset demonstrate an array of aerial behaviors, reinforcing the possibility there are multiple types of UAP requiring different explanations. Our analysis of the data supports the construct that if and when individual UAP incidents are resolved they will fall into one of five potential explanatory categories: airborne clutter, natural atmospheric phenomena, USG or industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems, and a catchall “other” bin. With the exception of the one instance where we determined with high confidence that the reported UAP was airborne clutter, specifically a deflating balloon, we currently lack sufficient information in our dataset to attribute incidents to specific explanations. 

Airborne Clutter: These objects include birds, balloons, recreational unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), or airborne debris like plastic bags that muddle a scene and affect an operator’s ability to identify true targets, such as enemy aircraft. 

Natural Atmospheric Phenomena: Natural atmospheric phenomena includes ice crystals, moisture, and thermal fluctuations that may register on some infrared and radar systems. 

USG or Industry Developmental Programs: Some UAP observations could be attributable to developments and classified programs by U.S. entities. We were unable to confirm, however, that these systems accounted for any of the UAP reports we collected. 

Foreign Adversary Systems: Some UAP may be technologies deployed by China, Russia, another nation, or a non-governmental entity.

Other: Although most of the UAP described in our dataset probably remain unidentified due to limited data or challenges to collection processing or analysis, we may require additional scientific knowledge to successfully collect on, analyze and characterize some of them. We would group such objects in this category pending scientific advances that allowed us to better understand them. The UAPTF intends to focus additional analysis on the small number of cases where a UAP appeared to display unusual flight characteristics or signature management. 

UAP THREATEN FLIGHT SAFETY AND, POSSIBLY, NATIONAL SECURITY 

UAP pose a hazard to safety of flight and could pose a broader danger if some instances represent sophisticated collection against U.S. military activities by a foreign government or demonstrate a breakthrough aerospace technology by a potential adversary. 

Ongoing Airspace Concerns 

When aviators encounter safety hazards, they are required to report these concerns. Depending on the location, volume, and behavior of hazards during incursions on ranges, pilots may cease their tests and/or training and land their aircraft, which has a deterrent effect on reporting. 

• The UAPTF has 11 reports of documented instances in which pilots reported near misses with a UAP. 

Potential National Security Challenges 

We currently lack data to indicate any UAP are part of a foreign collection program or indicative of a major technological advancement by a potential adversary. We continue to monitor for evidence of such programs given the counter intelligence challenge they would pose, particularly as some UAP have been detected near military facilities or by aircraft carrying the USG’s most advanced sensor systems. 

EXPLAINING UAP WILL REQUIRE ANALYTIC, COLLECTION AND RESOURCE INVESTMENT 

Standardize the Reporting, Consolidate the Data, and Deepen the Analysis 

In line with the provisions of Senate Report 116-233, accompanying the IAA for FY 2021, the UAPTF’s long-term goal is to widen the scope of its work to include additional UAP events documented by a broader swath of USG personnel and technical systems in its analysis. As the dataset increases, the UAPTF’s ability to employ data analytics to detect trends will also improve. The initial focus will be to employ artificial intelligence/machine learning algorithms to cluster and recognize similarities and patterns in features of the data points. As the database accumulates information from known aerial objects such as weather balloons, high-altitude or super-pressure balloons, and wildlife, machine learning can add efficiency by pre-assessing UAP reports to see if those records match similar events already in the database.

• The UAPTF has begun to develop interagency analytical and processing workflows to ensure both collection and analysis will be well informed and coordinated.

The majority of UAP data is from U.S. Navy reporting, but efforts are underway to standardize incident reporting across U.S. military services and other government agencies to ensure all relevant data is captured with respect to particular incidents and any U.S. activities that might be relevant. The UAPTF is currently working to acquire additional reporting, including from the U.S. Air Force (USAF), and has begun receiving data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

• Although USAF data collection has been limited historically the USAF began a sixmonth pilot program in November 2020 to collect in the most likely areas to encounter UAP and is evaluating how to normalize future collection, reporting, and analysis across the entire Air Force. • 
• The FAA captures data related to UAP during the normal course of managing air traffic operations. The FAA generally ingests this data when pilots and other airspace users report unusual or unexpected events to the FAA’s Air Traffic Organization. • 
• In addition, the FAA continuously monitors its systems for anomalies, generating additional information that may be of use to the UAPTF. The FAA is able to isolate data of interest to the UAPTF and make it available. The FAA has a robust and effective outreach program that can help the UAPTF reach members of the aviation community to highlight the importance of reporting UAP. 

Expand Collection 

The UAPTF is looking for novel ways to increase collection of UAP cluster areas when U.S. forces are not present as a way to baseline “standard” UAP activity and mitigate the collection bias in the dataset. One proposal is to use advanced algorithms to search historical data captured and stored by radars. The UAPTF also plans to update its current interagency UAP collection strategy in order bring to bear relevant collection platforms and methods from the DoD and the IC. 

Increase Investment in Research and Development 

The UAPTF has indicated that additional funding for research and development could further the future study of the topics laid out in this report. Such investments should be guided by a UAP Collection Strategy, UAP R&D Technical Roadmap, and a UAP Program Plan. 

APPENDIX A - Definition of Key Terms 

This report and UAPTF databases use the following defining terms: 

Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP): Airborne objects not immediately identifiable. The acronym UAP represents the broadest category of airborne objects reviewed for analysis. 

UAP Event: A holistic description of an occurrence during which a pilot or aircrew witnessed (or detected) a UAP. 

UAP Incident: A specific part of the event. 

UAP Report: Documentation of a UAP event, to include verified chains of custody and basic information such as the time, date, location, and description of the UAP. UAP reports include Range Fouler1 reports and other reporting

Okay, what can we take away from all of that?

Well, most of these UAP events are explainable. Some aren't, but its very few, and they're not telling you what they are. and they need more money.

In short, they don't want to panic people that they're "aliens" from outer space, and they don't want to reveal what they really are. And the reason for the latter, as we've said before, is that these almost certainly represent a U.S. government program of some sort, and its a military one. Either we have a high tech technology that we want to leak just a little, or we want our adversaries to believe we do.

Does that mean that the military is lying to Congress?  Not necessarily. The report says so little, it likely contains no real lies, just no real information.

June 20, 1941. The Army Air Corps becomes the Army Air Forces.

On this day in 1941, expressing its growing significance and the need to increase its autonomy, the United States Army Air Corps became the United States Army Air Forces.

The date I learned here:

Today in World War II History—June 20, 1941

The evolution had been occurring for some time so the increased degree of separation from the rest of the Army was not surprising.  None the less, it stopped short of full separation, as Air Force would not become a separate branch of service until 1947.

July 16, 1941. The Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport opened.

It was the Washington National Airport in 1941.

The airport opened, obviously, just before the United States' entry into the Second World War, it's 1941 opening partially explained by a prohibition in airport funding that was lifted in 1938.

Washington National in 1944.

It was built on grounds near Arlington that had been part of a large plantation, but its location very much constrains it size, so it remains a shockingly small airport in spite of its signficance.

It was renamed for President Ronald Reagan in 1998.  

I've personally never flown into it, having landed at the nearby Baltimore airport once.

June 15, 1930. Bessie Coleman receives a pilots license from the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale

 

On this day in 1921, Bessie Coleman received a pilots license from the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale, making her the first black person to be a "licensed" pilot.  As her grandparents were Cherokee, she was also the first licensed Native American pilot.

The event is a real milestone, but it's somewhat deceiving.  The US didn't require pilots licenses at the time and the global requirement was far from universal.  Pilots licenses would be introduced in the US in 1927.  This is significant here as Coleman's international pilots license was a real license, but one that was not recognized everywhere and, moreover, she was not the first black or female black pilots as is sometimes suggested.

She was a pioneering aviator however and earned her living as a barnstormer after taking up flying.  In that career she was also an advocate for African Americans.  She tragically died in 1930 at an airshow when her aircraft had catastrophic failure.

Lex Anteinternet: Sunday June 5, 1921. An accident claims the life of barnstormer, Laura Bromwell

Lex Anteinternet: Sunday June 5, 1921. An accident claims the life ...: 

Sunday June 5, 1921. An accident claims the life of female barnstormer, Laura Bromwell.

Laura Bromwell, a stunt pilot, became the first woman in that occupation to be killed in an areal demonstration.  The engine of her airplane stopped during a stunt over Mitchel Field, Long Island.

Czechoslovakia and Romania signed a treaty aimed at Hungary, which they feared  may seek to redraw its borders at their expensive.

United Airlines and Southwest cut the booze

The mental image some passengers have of flight attendants.

Problems with passengers have become so prevalent since air travel started to resume as the pandemic eases the US due to the increase in vaccination that United Airlines and Southwest Airlines have banned the serving of alcohol on their flights.

I've frankly always thought this a bit odd in the first place.  Most modern airline flights are comparatively short and I don't know why you'd want to drink. . . anything.  I've actually posted about this on one of our companion blogs, but what I've learned over the years is that if you offer people something, for the most part people will take it.  

"Would you like a big steaming bowl of walrus blubber?"  

"Yes, please".

What some folks seemingly see when getting on an airplane.

I've been on flights so short that there would be really no way to consume any beverage without a dedicated effort.  None the less, I've seen, even on those, and even if they're in the morning, people take a drink.  One one memorable flight a gentleman in his late 60s or 70s took a beer and immediately needed to go to the restroom, which he couldn't as the flight was too short and there wasn't time.  Why do that to yourself?

Alcoholism may be one reason.  I once was on a flight that took off and the shaky man next to me ordered a beer as soon as he could. This was no later than 10:00 a.m.  Either he was scared to death or he had dependency on alcohol that was pronounced.  Indeed, serving customers in that condition may be the one thing that justified booze on flights.

I should note that I don't even take water, soda or coffee on flights.  They're not that long.  The current American "I must constantly be drinking" cultural trait that causes people to pack around 55 gallon drums of water all the time predates me, and I don't need to be constantly sucking down fluids and I don't want to on something that can be pretty bouncy.  Indeed, its inevitably the case that if I'm on a flight with mild turbulence the passenger next to me will order coffee and sit it on the seat tray, so I can then watch it bounce around and threaten to drench me.

Maybe there's still international flights. . . . 

May 28, 1921. An early disaster.

Showing both the rapid advance of air travel, as more people were able to fly, and in more comfort, than before, and that aircraft remained very much an unknown in some ways, the deadliest air accident up to that time occurred when a Curtiss Eagle of the U.S. Army's Air Service crashed in a severe thunderstorm at Morgantown, Maryland.

Curtis Eagle.

All seven occupants were killed.  The plane was serving as an air ambulance.

Today In Wyoming's History: May 26, 1921. Rickenbacker crashes in Cheyenne.

Today In Wyoming's History: May 26: 1921   Eddie Rickenbacker crashed a mail plane near Cheyenne.

Why Unidentified Aerial Phenomena are almost certainly not aliens.

 Allow me to have a large element of skepticism.

If you follow the news at all, you've been reading of "leaked" Navy videos of UFOs, followed by official confirmation from Navy pilots along the lines "gosh, we don't know what the heck those things are".

Yeah. . . well. . . 

What we know for sure is that in recent years, Unidentified Aerial Phenomena have been interacting with ships of the U.S. Navy as well as Navy aircraft.  Video of them has been steadily "leaked" for several years, and the service, which normally likes to keep the most mundane things secret, has been pretty active in babbling about it.

Oh. . . and not just that.

The Navy also has applied for a patent for technology that appears to offer impossible high speed drives for aircraft, and acting to force through the patents when the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office looked like it was going to say "oh bull".  The patenting Navy agent, moreover, a mysteriously named and mysterious scientist, has written babbly papers that are out there, but not well circulated.

So, what's going on?

Gaslighting, most likely.

To those who follow international developments, the US and the Peoples Republic of China are, quite frankly, sliding towards war in a way that reminiscent of Imperial Japan and the US in the late 1930s and early 1940s.  China acts like a late 19th Century imperial power and is building up its naval forces in an alarming way.  China is a land power and has no real need whatsoever for a defensive navy.  The only real use of a navy for China is offensive, or to pose a threat as it could be offensive.

And China has been busy posing a threat.  It's using its navy to muscle in on anything it can in the region.  It's constantly at odds with Vietnam off the latter's coast.  It's threatening the Philippines, whose erratic president shows no signs of backing down to China, and its been so concerning to Japan that Japan is now revising its defense posture.  Most of all, it's been threatening to Taiwan, which it regards as a breakaway province which it sort of is.

The problem with a nation flexing its naval muscle is that sooner or later, it goes from flexing to "I wonder how this stuff really works?"  Almost all totalitarian powers with big navies get to that point and there's no reason to believe that China won't.  Given that, the US (and as noted Japan) have been planning to fight China.  

This has resulted in a plan to overhaul the Marine Corps with a Chinese war specifically in mind, and the Navy, upon whom the brunt of any Chinese action would fall, at least initially, has been planning for that as well. And the Navy is worried.

As it should be.

The United States Navy has been a aircraft carrier centric navy ever since December 7, 1941 when it became one by default.  And its been the world's most power navy as a carrier based navy.  Carries have allowed the United States to project power around the world in a way that no other country can.  But in the age of missiles, a real question now exists and is being debated on whether the age of carriers is ending.

Plenty of defense analysts say no, but plenty say yes.  Truth is, we just don't know, and absent a major naval contest with a major naval power, which right now there isn't, we won't know.  But China is attempting to become that power and it has the ability to act pretty stoutly in its own region right now.

So how does this relate to Unidentified Aerial Phenomena?

The U.S. military has a long history of using the UFO phenomena/fandom for disinformation.  It notoriously did this in a pretty cruel way in at least one instance in the 60s/70s in which it completely wrecked the psychological health of a victim of a disinformation campaign that it got rolling, even planting a bogus crashed UFO to keep it rolling.  Beyond that, it's been pretty willing to use the stories of "weird alien craft" to cover its own developments, with plenty of the weird alien craft simply being developments in the US aerospace industry.

Given that, and the fact that at the same time the service purports to be taking this really seriously, it continually leaks information about it, and it doesn't seem really all that bothered, the best evidence here is something else is going on, of which there are a lot of possibilities.  These range from the service developing some really high tech drones and testing them against the same Navy units (they're usually the same ones) again and again to just having the ability to make this stuff all up.

So why the leaks?

If the service is experimenting with high tech drones, and if the experiment is going well, leaking the information may serve as a warning to potential enemies, notably the PRC, that "look, we have something so nifty our own Navy can't do squat about it. . .let alone yours".  Being vague about it probably serves the US  interest better than simply coming out with "Nanner, nanner. . surface fleets are obsolete . . .".  After all, once we admit we have them, at that point the race to figure them out is really on.

On the other hand, maybe we're just making the whole thing up.  We have been worried in the past about other nations development super high tech aircraft, notably the Soviet Union, then Russia post USSR, and now China.  Running around patenting mysterious things and having weird things going on may be a disinformation campaign designed to make a potential enemy a little hesitant.  And they'd hesitate, because. . . .

Maybe we really have developed some super high tech craft, either manned or unmanned, that are now so advanced that we feel pretty comfortable testing them against a control set, that being, at first, the same U.S. Navy units again and again.  A recent report indicates that other navies are now experiencing the same thing, and we might frankly be doing the same thing with them.  There's no reason to believe that a nation that would do U2 overflights over hostile nations in the 60s, and then SR71 flights the same way, which tested the spread of biological weapons by actually spreading biological agents off of the coast of California, and which tested the intelligence use of LSD by giving it to unsuspecting CIA employees, might not do this.  

Indeed, it'd make for a pretty good test.

Lex Anteinternet: May 18, 1941. Airy Matters.

Lex Anteinternet: May 18, 1941. Airy Matters.: 

May 18, 1941. Airy Matters.

Flag of the Soviet Air Force.

On this day in 1941, Stalin's government began a purge of Soviet air force officers, which I'm aware of only due to this item:

Today in World War II History—May 18, 1941

By this point in 1941 the signs were there that Germany was getting set to invade the Soviet Union.  Eliminating air force officers was a bizarre thing to do, given the risk of impending war.  But much about Stalin's reign was bizarre.

Speaking of things airborne, the RAF inserted a company of British troops on the Baghdad road in Iraq by air, using Vickers Valentia's to do so.

If you've never heard of Valentia's, that's because its one of a collection of obsolete aircraft the British were still using in more remote areas at the time.

The German Navy commenced Operation Rheinübung with the Bismarck.  It would prove to be a short sortie.

It's mission was to raid British convoys.

Petty Officer Alfred Sephton would receive the Victoria Cross posthumously for his actions in directing anti aircraft fire on the HMS Coventry on this day in 1941.  The Coventry was aiding the Aba, a hospital ship under attack by German dive bombers.

More about that can be found here:

Petty Officer Sephton wins the Victoria Cross

Prince Aimone, the Duke of Aosta, was crowned the King of the Independent State of Croatia. He never went there, however, and refused to do so over the issue of Italian annexation of Dalmatian land, making him a particular odd character in that he was an Italian and an officer in the Italian navy.  Following Italy switching sides, he resigned his presumptive kingship and served again in the Italian Navy.  He resigned his ducal title upon the fall of the Italian monarchy.